“大空头”伯里警告：美联储重启购债凸显美国银行体系脆弱

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns that the Federal Reserve's resumption of short-term Treasury bond purchases indicates increasing reliance of the financial system on Fed support rather than stability [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has decided to stop shrinking its balance sheet and plans to purchase approximately $35 billion to $45 billion in U.S. Treasuries monthly, starting in January [1][3] - Burry questions the timing of the Fed's actions, noting that the U.S. Treasury has been issuing more short-term bonds to avoid raising 10-year yields [4] Group 2: Financial System Vulnerability - Burry states that without the Fed's over $3 trillion in reserves, the U.S. banking system would not be able to function, highlighting a sign of weakness rather than strength [1][3] - Before the banking turmoil in 2023, the financial system required about $2.2 trillion, compared to only $45 billion in 2007, indicating a rapid decline in the banking sector's strength [1][4] Group 3: Market Implications - Burry suggests that the Fed's tendency to expand its balance sheet after each crisis helps explain the strength of the stock market [5] - He also notes that the actual limitation of this approach could lead to the complete nationalization of the U.S. bond market, with the Fed owning all $40 trillion of U.S. debt [5]