港口库存易增难减 预计铁矿石仍有回调空间

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 1.43% to 756.0 yuan, indicating a weak market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Zhengxin Futures anticipates that iron ore prices still have room for correction due to a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a notable decline in iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [2]. - Xingye Futures suggests that the iron ore May contract can still be held lightly short, as the fundamentals indicate a clear trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand for imported ore in December [3]. - Nanhua Futures believes that the downside for iron ore prices is limited, supported by low steel mill inventories and the necessity for pre-holiday restocking, despite seasonal declines in iron production [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side shows a year-on-year increase of 32.5 million tons in global shipments, primarily from non-mainstream mines, while port inventories continue to accumulate [4]. - Demand is facing seasonal declines in iron production, but the recovery in steel mill profits may limit further production cuts, providing some support for prices [4]. - The overall market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, with expectations of continued price fluctuations within specified ranges for different contracts [3].