杨德龙展望2026年宏观经济分析与资本市场：有望进一步向上拓展空间 投资机会更加丰富

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut of the year and a total reduction of 75 basis points [1][10] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that further rate hikes are unlikely, attributing current inflation partly to tariff factors, and noted that excluding these factors, inflation is around 2%, close to the Fed's target [1][11] - The Fed's decision to cut rates has alleviated concerns about a hawkish signal, with Powell stating that policymakers are observing economic trends and that rate hikes are not the current baseline scenario [11][12] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's continued rate cuts are expected to lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, while the Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate, potentially attracting more foreign capital into Chinese assets [12][13] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a shift in global capital flows, with funds moving from high-valued US markets to lower-valued A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, enhancing the revaluation potential of Chinese assets [13][16] - China's GDP growth is projected to remain around 5% in 2026, supported by stable economic recovery, which will provide a foundation for the A-share market to maintain a slow bull and long bull trend [17] Group 3: Capital Market Trends - The capital market is expected to see a continued shift towards equity funds, with public fund sales likely to recover, driven by a significant increase in household savings, which have reached 165 trillion yuan [14][15] - The market is anticipated to stabilize above the 4000-point mark, with a gradual upward trend rather than a rapid bull market, characterized by a "two steps forward, one step back" pattern [14][15] - The technology sector, which has been a standout performer, is expected to remain a key investment theme in 2026, alongside potential rebounds in the new energy and consumer sectors [14][16] Group 4: Global Trade and Policy - The negative impact of US-China trade tensions on exports is diminishing, with China's trade surplus exceeding one trillion dollars this year, a historical high [17] - The "dual circulation" strategy emphasizes the importance of both domestic and international markets to ensure sustainable economic growth, balancing external demand with internal consumption and investment [17] - The central government's policies are set to support economic growth through proactive fiscal measures and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to create a favorable financial environment [13][14]