博时市场点评12月11日：两市震荡调整，银行板块上涨

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with a trading volume increasing to nearly 1.89 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1][7] - Only the banking sector saw an increase, with a rise of 0.17%, while sectors such as comprehensive, communication, and real estate experienced significant declines of 4.31%, 3.14%, and 3.06% respectively [10][11] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year [2][8] - The Fed also indicated plans to expand its balance sheet by purchasing approximately 40 billion dollars in Treasury securities this month [2][8] - The internal division within the Fed regarding future rate cuts suggests that the threshold for further reductions has significantly increased, with future policies likely to return to a "data-dependent" approach [2][8] Economic Forecasts - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecasts for China, predicting growth rates of 5.0% and 4.5% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared to previous estimates [2][9] - The IMF's positive outlook is seen as a significant endorsement of China's growth policies and economic fundamentals, which may boost global investor confidence in Chinese assets [3][9] Government Bonds - The Ministry of Finance plans to renew 750 billion yuan of special government bonds on December 12, with a focus on 10-year and 15-year maturities [3][9] - This issuance is a routine rollover operation that does not increase fiscal deficits and reflects the continuity and regulatory nature of fiscal management [3][9]