价格大涨、库存告急！这种“软黄金”缘何不可替代？

Core Insights - Recent international copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures showing a year-to-date increase of over 30% [1] - Global copper inventory is critically low, with LME available stocks dropping below 100,000 tons, raising concerns about a potential "copper shortage" [1] Group 1: Importance of Copper - Copper is deemed "irreplaceable" due to its unique physical properties and its deep integration with global industrial transformation, making it a critical resource in clean energy, digital economy, and high-end manufacturing [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that copper is essential for decarbonization, with significant copper requirements for wind and solar projects, as well as electric vehicles [3] - Copper's recycling value is significant, with global recycled copper accounting for 35%, which is crucial for resource security [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Although global copper resources are abundant, they are unevenly distributed, with approximately 558 operational copper mines and a projected total capacity of 29.3 million tons by 2025 [4] - The average copper grade has declined from 1.3% in 2005 to 0.65% currently, and the cost of mining has increased by 42% over the past decade [4] - The IEA predicts a 2.5% increase in global copper consumption by 2026, with a projected supply gap of 30% by 2035, indicating a long-term supply-demand imbalance [6] Group 3: Technological Innovations in Copper Industry - Strategic emerging industries are becoming the main growth areas for copper consumption, with an expected consumption of 15.4 million tons in China by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of about 3% [6] - Chinese copper companies are focusing on technological breakthroughs, resource security, and recycling to support stable industry development [8] - Innovations include the development of clean separation technologies for complex copper-molybdenum ores and the establishment of a recycling system for rare metals, enhancing resource utilization [8]