中指研究院：1-11月50城住宅租金累计跌幅扩大至3.04%

Core Insights - The 2025 outlook for China's housing rental market indicates a continued decline in rental prices, with a cumulative drop of 3.04% in the average rent across 50 key cities from January to November, exacerbated by weak employment income expectations and increased supply of guaranteed rental housing [1][2] - The central government is shifting its focus from large-scale construction of guaranteed rental housing to optimizing supply based on demand, which is expected to stabilize the market and promote the development of professional rental companies [1][11] - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations aims to standardize the rental market, enhancing the operational quality of rental housing enterprises and fostering tenant trust in brands [1][20] Rental Price Trends - The average rental price in 50 key cities has seen a cumulative decline of 3.04% from January to November 2025, with November's average rent at 34.4 yuan per square meter per month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.57% [2][5] - Among the 50 cities, 49 experienced a decline in rental prices, with cities like Wenzhou, Sanya, Nanjing, and Haikou seeing drops exceeding 5% [5][12] - First-tier cities recorded a smaller cumulative rental decline of 2.06%, while second-tier cities saw a drop of 3.66% [5][12] Investment Returns - The rental-to-price ratio in 50 key cities improved slightly to 2.23% as of November 2025, up from 2.12% at the end of 2024, indicating better investment returns in the rental market [7][8] - The rental-to-price ratio has been steadily increasing due to the ongoing adjustments in housing prices and the professionalization of the rental market [8][11] Policy Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the transition of China's housing rental market towards high-quality development, with a focus on optimizing the supply of guaranteed rental housing [11][12] - Policies have been introduced to enhance the financing channels for rental housing enterprises, including the expansion of public REITs for rental housing [13][16] - The Housing Rental Regulations, effective from September 2025, establish a legal framework for the rental market, promoting a more regulated and professional environment [20][21] Local Policies - Over 150 housing rental-related policies were introduced by local governments from January to November 2025, with a focus on optimizing the supply and management of rental housing [22][23] - Local governments are increasingly emphasizing a "market + guarantee" housing supply system, with policies shifting from large-scale construction to standardized management [23][24] Market Demand Trends - The demand for rental housing remains strong, with a notable increase in the proportion of tenants planning to renew their leases, although renting is still viewed as a transitional choice for many [45]