价值研究所｜即时零售迎“奇点”，巨头激战正酣

Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is projected to reach 971.4 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%, nearing the trillion yuan mark [2][3] - Major e-commerce platforms are heavily investing in instant retail, with Alibaba, JD, and Meituan collectively spending nearly 60 billion yuan in the third quarter of this year [3] - The business model of instant retail, which focuses on rapid delivery from local warehouses, has evolved over the past decade and is now gaining traction among consumers, particularly the younger demographic [4][5] Market Expansion - The instant retail sector is expanding rapidly, with expectations to reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 25% [3] - Instant retail has transitioned from a focus on fresh produce to a broader range of products, including beauty and apparel, which are well-suited for quick delivery due to their high demand for timeliness [5][7] Consumer Behavior - The younger generation, particularly those born after 1995, prioritize delivery speed, with over 50% expecting same-day or even half-day delivery [3][4] - Instant retail aligns with the "immediate purchase and delivery" mindset of younger consumers, enhancing their shopping experience and brand loyalty [4] Channel Transformation - The shift towards instant retail is prompting a re-evaluation of market shares, with brands that embrace new channels likely to stand out [5] - Beauty products are among the fastest-growing categories in instant retail due to their high price points and urgent demand scenarios [5][7] Operational Innovations - Companies like Qingdao Beer have adapted their operations to leverage instant retail, achieving a nearly tenfold increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) from 2 billion yuan to approximately 20 billion yuan over five years [8] - Instant retail is also enabling traditional retail businesses to transition from a "goods and venue" mindset to an "instant service" model, opening new growth avenues [8][10] Competitive Landscape - Despite the rapid growth, the instant retail sector is still in its early stages, with major players engaged in a subsidy war that raises questions about long-term profitability [10][11] - Retail brands face challenges from high platform fees and competition from e-commerce platforms that are also developing their own private label products, which can undermine traditional brands [11] Future Outlook - The future of retail is expected to be multi-faceted, with no single model completely replacing the others, as companies strive to find business models that fit the instant retail paradigm [11] - Companies that can enhance their supply chain responsiveness through digital transformation are likely to thrive in the instant retail era [11]