OEXN:利率中性区间与政策分歧下的市场脉动

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to a reassessment of the interest rate path, with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic data, while the market shows little pricing for further rate hikes but has mixed expectations for additional easing [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell emphasized that the policy rate is now in a neutral range, and future adjustments will depend on data [1][4]. - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with one-quarter of voting members dissenting against the rate cut, highlighting a rare tension between inflation concerns and signs of a cooling labor market [1][4]. - The committee's predictions range from maintaining rates to varying degrees of further cuts, with no consensus on rate hikes as a baseline scenario [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The SEP forecasts for growth in 2026 are higher than those for 2025, attributed to fiscal impacts, ongoing AI investment, and sustained consumer momentum [1][4]. - Powell noted that the labor market has shown signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points since summer, and inflation has slightly eased, particularly in services [2][5]. - Structural issues in the housing market, such as long-term supply shortages and high relocation costs due to low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic, will not be significantly improved by the recent rate cut [2][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged during the press conference, rising above $4,238 per ounce, reflecting market sensitivity to the prospect of looser monetary policy and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][6]. - The meeting underscored the Fed's challenges in balancing growth, inflation, and employment, with future market movements likely to depend heavily on data and subtle policy signals [3][6].