NCE平台:黄金走强的结构性动力

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to have upward breakout conditions in the coming years, driven by strong official purchases, a weakening dollar, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and global uncertainties, which are crucial for gold prices to reach new highs by 2026 [1][4][5] Group 1: Market Drivers - Strong official institutional gold purchases and ongoing dollar weakness are significant factors supporting gold prices [1][4] - The expectation of further Fed rate cuts and global uncertainties are also contributing to the bullish outlook for gold [1][5] - The combination of these macroeconomic drivers is setting the stage for a new structural market for precious metals [4][5] Group 2: Commodity Performance - The overall performance of commodities in 2026 may be constrained by a relaxed energy supply, but the positive factors for precious metals appear more robust [4][5] - A loose financial environment and improved macro expectations provide moderate support for commodity assets, while a soft energy market may limit overall returns [4][5] Group 3: Investment Trends - The declining opportunity cost of gold during a rate-cutting cycle enhances its investment appeal, especially as the dollar weakens [5] - There is a growing trend among global asset allocators seeking non-equity diversification tools, making gold a key component of long-term portfolios [5] - The relative performance of gold against other assets, including AI and crypto assets, has strengthened, leading to renewed interest in gold as a stable investment [5] Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Predictions from multiple institutions suggest that gold prices could increase by approximately 5.8% to 10% by 2026, moving towards higher valuation ranges [5]