FPG财盛国际:利率路径不明下的加密回调

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakness in major crypto assets is closely related to the latest policy signals from the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift in market sentiment from optimism to caution due to uncertainty regarding future policy paths [1][2]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $90,000, down approximately 2.4% from the Asian morning session, while Ether dropped to around $3,190, and major crypto indices declined over 4% [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding inflation and employment have been highlighted, with two members voting to maintain interest rates, while six members believe it is not appropriate to lower rates at this time [3]. Policy Implications - The latest forecast indicates only one rate cut in 2026, which is weaker than the previously expected two to three cuts, amplifying market uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths [3][4]. - The Fed's announcement of purchasing $40 billion in short-term government bonds monthly is viewed as liquidity management rather than a new round of quantitative easing, aimed at alleviating potential tensions in the money market rather than significantly lowering long-term rates [2][4]. Market Outlook - The short-term pullback in the crypto market reflects a contraction in risk appetite due to unclear policy prospects, with future market performance dependent on whether the interest rate path becomes clearer in the coming months [2][4]. - As major macro catalysts for the year conclude, market trading may further cool, necessitating close attention to policy guidance and subsequent macroeconomic cycles [4].