中国经济增长前景连获国际“信任票”

Group 1 - Multiple authoritative institutions have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years, indicating optimism about the economic outlook [1] - The World Bank has increased its 2025 growth forecast for China by 0.4 percentage points, attributing this to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies supporting domestic consumption and investment [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5%, up by 0.2 percentage points, citing effective macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs projects that China's export volume will grow by 5% to 6% annually in the coming years, contributing to overall economic expansion [2] - Deutsche Bank reports that major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide strong support for infrastructure investment, with a rebound in investment growth contributing to GDP in 2026 [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China notes that timely policy adjustments have boosted market confidence and increased foreign interest in Chinese assets, predicting a steady accumulation trend in foreign investments in Chinese stocks by 2026 [2] Group 3 - China's macroeconomic data has shown a recovery this year, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, ranking among the top in major economies [3] - China's foreign trade has maintained growth for ten consecutive months, supported by proactive measures in response to external pressures [3] - Investment in high-tech sectors has been growing rapidly, with significant expansions in new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence, contributing to stable economic performance [3] Group 4 - The World Bank emphasizes that future economic growth in China will increasingly rely on domestic demand, necessitating structural reforms in the social security system and creating a more predictable business environment [4] - The IMF highlights the need for China to transition to a consumption-driven growth model and suggests more robust policy measures to support this transition [4] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference will serve as an important indicator of China's economic policy direction for the coming year, particularly in navigating complex domestic and international challenges [4]