报告：明年或落地更多增量政策 加速楼市“止跌回稳”

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese real estate market will continue its adjustment trend in 2025, remaining in a "stop falling and stabilize" phase, with expectations for more incremental policies to accelerate this stabilization in 2026 [1][2] - From January to November 2025, the demand for improved housing remains a significant support for the market, with new home prices in 100 cities cumulatively rising by 2.29%, maintaining the same growth rate as in the same period of 2024. In contrast, the second-hand housing market saw a cumulative price drop of 7.46% [1] - The transaction volume for new homes in core cities has remained stable, driven by quality projects, while the number of second-hand residential transactions in 30 key cities has seen a slight year-on-year increase [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report anticipates that more incremental policies may be implemented, particularly in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where there is room for further optimization of restrictive purchasing policies. Additionally, local governments may continue to lower mortgage rates, reduce intermediary fees, and increase tax deductions on mortgage interest to lower purchasing costs [2] - According to the "China Real Estate Industry Medium and Long-term Development Dynamic Model," it is estimated that the year-on-year decline in the sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2026 will be narrower compared to 2025, with a continuation of market differentiation, where "good cities + good houses" will still present structural opportunities [2] - The supply-side reduction strategy is expected to help decrease market inventory, thereby improving the supply-demand relationship under the guidance of policies aimed at controlling increments and optimizing existing stock [2]