中指研究院：1-11月百城新房价格累计上涨2.29%，涨幅较2024年同期持平

Core Insights - The overall real estate market in China is expected to continue its adjustment trend in 2025, with new home sales weakening and the second-hand market relying on price adjustments to stimulate volume [1][2]. Market Overview - From January to November 2025, new home prices in 100 cities increased by 2.29%, remaining stable compared to the same period in 2024. In contrast, second-hand home prices fell by 7.46% during the same period, indicating ongoing pressure on prices [2]. - The land supply strategy has shifted to "reducing quantity while improving quality," with residential land transaction area in 300 cities decreasing by 15.8% year-on-year and land transfer fees dropping by 6% [2]. - The top 20 cities accounted for 57% of the total land transfer fees, with state-owned enterprises being the primary players in land acquisition [2]. Policy and Supply Optimization - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, with policies aimed at stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply [4]. - The government is expected to continue optimizing restrictive policies in major cities and reduce housing costs through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and increasing tax deductions for mortgage interest [4]. Rental Market Insights - In 2025, the housing rental market saw a decline in average rents, with a 3.04% drop in rental prices across 50 key cities from January to November [7]. - The implementation of the "Housing Rental Regulations" marks a new phase of industry regulation, with over 150 housing rental policies introduced by local governments in 2025 [6]. Industry Trends and Challenges - The property management sector is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue growth for listed companies dropping from over 40% in 2021 to less than 4% currently, indicating a shift from a focus on scale to prioritizing quality and efficiency [8][10]. - The industry is facing a "revenue growth without profit" situation, necessitating optimization of pricing mechanisms and innovation to achieve sustainable development [12]. Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to see a 6.2% decline in new residential sales area in 2026, with a continued focus on quality over quantity in supply [5]. - The rental housing market is projected to stabilize as supply shifts from large-scale construction to demand-driven development, enhancing the quality of rental properties [8].