FED如期降息：影子QE要来了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve (FED) has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50% - 3.75%. This marks the sixth rate cut since September 2024 and the third cut this year [1][20]. Interest Rate Decision - The decision to cut rates was supported by 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating internal divisions within the FED. Among the dissenting votes, one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while two preferred to keep rates unchanged [3][20]. - The dot plot indicates that FED officials maintain a median rate forecast of 3.375% for the end of 2026, suggesting the possibility of one more 25 basis point cut next year [22]. Short-Term Debt Purchase Plan - A significant aspect of this meeting is the announcement of a short-term debt purchase plan (RMP), which will begin on December 12, involving the purchase of $40 billion in Treasury bills per month to maintain ample reserves in the banking system [5][23]. - Although the FED is purchasing short-term T-bills, it is important to note that the U.S. Treasury is also buying long-term bonds and implementing a bond repurchase plan to enhance market liquidity and suppress rising yields. The frequency of repurchases has increased from two to four times per quarter, with the maximum operation limit raised from $30 billion to $38 billion. This combination of FED purchases and Treasury repurchases can be interpreted as a form of "shadow QE" [5][23]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell, reaching a low of 98.59. Initially, the dollar dropped after the rate cut announcement but rebounded briefly before declining again due to the debt purchase plan [6][24]. - The yields on 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, with the 2-year yield dropping more significantly by 1.85% compared to a 1.21% drop in the 10-year yield [7][25]. - All three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq 100 showing particularly strong gains, reflecting positive expectations for liquidity easing [8][26]. - Gold and silver prices surged, with silver experiencing a notable increase of over 3%, reaching a historical high [10][28]. - Bitcoin saw a significant spike, reaching $94,000 with an instantaneous increase of 2.89% [11][29].