贝莱德：日本市场或将面临利率落后于通胀形势的冲击

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's Japan Chief Investment Strategist Yuichi Chiguchi warns that if the Bank of Japan falls behind in controlling inflation, the Japanese market may face shocks next year [1][2]. Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise the key policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which remains significantly below the approximately 3% inflation rate [1][2]. - Chiguchi indicates that if price growth accelerates in the second half of 2026, the Bank of Japan may be forced into a faster tightening cycle [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite potential challenges, BlackRock remains optimistic about the Japanese stock market, predicting that the Nikkei index will continue to rise after reaching a historical high in 2025 [1][2]. Sector Opportunities - The enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is identified as a major driver of global stock markets, with Japanese suppliers expected to benefit from significant investments in this sector [1][2]. - The financial sector in Japan is anticipated to become another pillar of growth, even considering potential paper losses from Japanese government bond holdings [1][2]. Bond Market Dynamics - Recently, Japanese government bonds have seen a significant decline, with the 10-year bond yield reaching a high of 1.97%, the highest in 18 years, partly due to fiscal concerns surrounding Prime Minister Kishida's stimulus plan [3]. - Chiguchi suggests that yields could rise to 2% or 3%, but this is not expected to hinder economic growth [3].