铜价涨至万元关口，中国家电业掀起空调“铝代铜”变革

Core Viewpoint - Driven by the historic high copper price exceeding $10,000 per ton, China, the largest air conditioning producer and consumer, is accelerating a significant "aluminum replacing copper" supply chain revolution under top-level design guidance. This move addresses raw material cost pressures and is crucial for the safety and future competitiveness of a trillion-yuan industry [1]. Group 1: Market and Policy - The surge in copper prices is the most direct trigger for this transformation, severely impacting the profit margins of downstream manufacturing. "Aluminum replacing copper," with material costs around one-fourth of copper, has emerged as an attractive cost-reduction solution [2]. - National policies provide clear guidance for this technological path, with the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" identifying "aluminum tubes for heat exchangers in refrigerators and air conditioners" as a key focus area for "using aluminum to save copper" [2]. Group 2: Industry Actions - The industry is responding quickly and collaboratively, with key standards being developed to establish unified and reliable technical specifications for "aluminum replacing copper." A standard for aluminum tube fin-type heat exchangers has already been published, while two additional standards are in preparation [3]. - The revision of the national standard for heat exchangers in air conditioners is underway, which will provide national-level endorsement for product performance and safety. Major companies and research institutions are collaborating on this standard revision, with a new round of discussions expected in January 2026 [3]. Group 3: Technical Challenges and Corporate Strategy Differentiation - "Aluminum replacing copper" is not merely a material substitution; it presents significant technical challenges due to aluminum's inferior thermal conductivity and higher linear expansion coefficient, which impose new requirements on heat exchanger design, manufacturing processes, and long-term reliability [4]. - Domestic air conditioning leaders exhibit differentiated strategies: companies like Midea have actively promoted research since 2012, while others like Gree and Changhong have opted for a more cautious approach, focusing on enhancing copper technology instead of fully launching replacement plans [5]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The profound significance of "aluminum replacing copper" lies in helping the Chinese air conditioning industry escape the dilemma of "increased production without increased revenue." The industry faces a growing contradiction between expanding capacity and slowing domestic demand, necessitating a shift from price competition to value competition driven by technological innovation [6]. - Whether embracing aluminum or optimizing copper technology, the ultimate goal is to address user pain points through substantial innovation, enhancing product efficiency, intelligence, and health attributes, thereby building differentiated high-end competitiveness [6].