超预期！降息150个基点

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey lowered the one-week repo rate by 150 basis points to 38%, exceeding market expectations of a 100 basis point cut [1][2] - Inflation trends showed a slight decline in October and November, with November's consumer inflation rate lower than expected due to an unexpected drop in food prices [2][3] - The Turkish economy experienced a higher-than-expected GDP growth rate in the third quarter, complicating policy decisions amid declining inflation and rising economic activity [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data from the Turkish Statistical Institute indicated that monthly inflation slowed to 0.87% in November, the lowest since May 2023, with annual inflation dropping to 31.07%, below the anticipated 31.6% [3] - The widening interest rate differential of approximately 8.5 percentage points between policy rates and inflation has increased market speculation for further rate cuts [3] - JPMorgan's recent report forecasts a 4.4% GDP growth for Turkey in 2026, with an acceleration in the second half of the year, although consumer confidence remains fragile despite improving macroeconomic conditions [6]