Morgan Stanley Upgrades MP Materials (MP) to Overweight on US Supply Chain Push and Rare Earth Outlook

Group 1: Company Overview - MP Materials Corp. produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere and operates in two segments: Materials and Magnetics [4] Group 2: Recent Developments - Morgan Stanley upgraded MP Materials to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target increase to $71, citing the unresolved critical mineral dependency issues in the US despite China's pause on rare earth restrictions [1] - The company reported record NDPR oxide production of 721 metric tons in Q3 2025, representing a 21% sequential increase and a 51% year-over-year increase [2] - MP Materials is set to start commissioning its heavy rare earth circuit in mid-2026, which will enable the production of 10,000 metric tons of high-performance NDFEB magnets annually [2] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - A significant partnership with Apple has begun, involving a $40 million prepayment for the production of magnets from recycled materials, with a total of $200 million expected as the project progresses [3] - The next payment from Apple is anticipated in Q4, with initial magnet volumes targeting mid-2027 and recycling expected shortly thereafter [3] - The long-term Purchase Price Agreement with the Department of War is expected to provide earnings visibility and help the company return to profitability in Q4 2025 [3]