独立储能投资大热之下：已有项目出现亏损

Core Viewpoint - The current profitability model for independent energy storage remains unclear, leading to cautious optimism among investors in the sector [1][9]. Group 1: Investment Climate - Many investors are hesitant to engage in independent storage projects due to uncertain returns, with some projects being halted as a result [1][9]. - The number of registered independent storage projects has surged, with Guangdong seeing a rise from 14 projects in 2022 to 178 in 2025, indicating a "land grab" phenomenon in the storage sector [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration's 136 Document marks a shift to market-driven competition, ending the mandatory storage requirement for new energy projects [3][4]. Group 2: Profitability Models - The profitability of independent storage has diversified beyond capacity leasing to include capacity compensation, ancillary services, and energy trading, providing a more stable revenue model [7]. - The internal rate of return (IRR) for independent storage projects in Inner Mongolia can exceed 10%, supported by local policies [4]. - However, the profitability of independent storage projects is highly dependent on regional policies and market conditions, leading to variability in expected returns [7][9]. Group 3: Market Challenges - There is a significant supply shortage of battery cells, impacting the ability of companies to meet demand for independent storage projects [6]. - In regions like Guangdong, the demand for independent storage is limited, primarily focused on frequency regulation, with many projects facing operational losses [8][9]. - The cancellation of mandatory capacity leasing has led to a sharp decline in expected revenue from capacity leasing, further complicating the financial outlook for independent storage projects [9].