Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown strong performance against the US dollar (USD) since December 2025, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) [1] - The RBA's recent hawkish stance, including maintaining the cash rate and signaling a potential for future rate hikes due to inflation concerns, has shifted market expectations [1][2] - Economic indicators in Australia, such as private demand, the real estate market, and a tight labor market, support the RBA's hawkish turn, despite previous significant declines in inflation [2] Group 2 - The divergence in global central bank policies has increased the volatility of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with market expectations for a hawkish stance from several non-US central banks [2] - The demand for Australian resources, particularly driven by global AI investment and the transition to renewable energy, has provided support for the AUD, although challenges remain, such as lower-than-expected GDP growth and productivity issues [2] - There is a general optimism among institutions regarding the future of the AUD/USD exchange rate, with predictions of potential rate hikes by the RBA in 2026 and expectations for the exchange rate to rise in the first half of next year [3]
澳联储鹰派信号美联储降息 澳元走势迎关键窗口
Jin Tou Wang·2025-12-11 12:55