瑞士央行连续两次维持利率不变 重申必要时可重启负利率政策

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained its key policy interest rate at 0% for the second consecutive time, indicating a willingness to consider further rate cuts if persistent price declines pose a deflation threat [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The SNB stated it will continue to monitor the situation and adjust monetary policy as necessary to ensure price stability [1] - The decision follows a cautious stance after a six-quarter cycle of rate cuts that ended in September [1] - The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland reached the lower limit of the SNB's target range of 0% to 2% in November [1] Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The SNB has revised its inflation expectations for 2026 down from 0.5% to 0.3% and for 2027 from 0.7% to 0.6% based on the current 0% interest rate assumption [1] - The central bank emphasized that medium-term inflation pressures have "changed little" since the September meeting and will not overly rely on single-month inflation readings for policy decisions [1] Group 3: Global Monetary Policy Context - The SNB's decision comes in the context of diverging global monetary policies, following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut due to labor market concerns, while indicating a potential pause in future rate changes due to stagnant inflation progress [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its rates unchanged until 2026, as its inflation levels have stabilized around the 2% target [1] Group 4: Negative Interest Rate Considerations - The SNB Chairman, Martin Schlegel, noted that the threshold for lowering rates into negative territory is higher than for cutting rates in a positive interest rate environment, considering potential impacts on savers, bank profits, and pension funds [2] - Switzerland previously implemented a negative interest rate policy from January 2015 to September 2022, lasting over seven years [2]