财信证券袁闯：政策护航提质增效 关注科技成长核心主线

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a continuation of proactive macroeconomic policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic recovery and stabilize the capital market [1] Market Environment - The overseas economy remains resilient with marginally easing liquidity, alongside rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, indicating an improving external environment [1] - Domestically, the "dual easing" policy is expected to continue, leading to a likely weak recovery in the economy, while "anti-involution" policies are set to optimize industry supply and demand dynamics, positively impacting listed company performance [1] Investment Themes - The technology growth sector remains the core focus for the medium to long term, with the AI industry chain expected to shift from hardware to application, particularly in media, computing, and internet sectors [2] - Four specific investment lines are highlighted: 1. High dividend assets are seeing increased accumulation by institutional investors, with sectors like white goods, banking, and telecommunications showing promising dividend strategies [2] 2. The "anti-involution" trend is entering a phase driven by fundamentals, with significant performance improvement expected in coal, steel, and photovoltaic industries [2] 3. Domestic demand expansion focuses on "matching effects," with new consumption areas like health consumption and pet economy, alongside travel and aviation sectors, presenting opportunities [2] 4. In the resource sector, strategic minor metals and industrial metals are anticipated to follow gold in price recovery, benefiting from the upward trend in commodity prices [2] Outlook for 2026 - With policy support, improving internal and external environments, and structural optimization, the A-share market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a focus on technology growth and advantageous niche sectors as the core logic for capturing market opportunities [2]