中信建投证解读中央经济工作会议：积极政策取向未变，扩大内需为重点工作之首

Core Insights - The central economic work conference concluded that current economic issues are primarily related to developing and transitioning challenges, which can be resolved through effort [1] - The conference outlined a 2026 economic vision focusing on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing investment, managing local government debt, advancing anti-involution measures, stabilizing the real estate market, and fostering new growth drivers [1][2] - Incremental policies were introduced, with a more proactive fiscal stance, maintaining a high deficit rate, expanding debt issuance, and tax reforms, while monetary policy remains "appropriately loose" targeting a reasonable recovery in prices [1][4] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains expansionary, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, with expectations for the deficit rate to stay at 4% and special bonds potentially expanding to 5 trillion yuan [5][17] - Local special bonds are expected to increase significantly to address fiscal difficulties and support local governments in debt management, with a notable rise in new special bonds issued this year [5][17] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy is anticipated to continue with rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring ample liquidity [6][18] - The emphasis on guiding financial institutions to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium enterprises indicates the potential for more structural policy tools [7][19] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with strategies to boost consumption through income growth plans and optimizing policy implementations, while also addressing supply-side improvements [8][20] - Investment strategies aim to stabilize and increase central budget investments, optimize project implementations, and enhance urban renewal efforts, with expectations for infrastructure investment to improve [8][20] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is targeted for stabilization, with policies to control inventory and encourage the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, alongside potential demand-side support measures [9][21] - Despite stabilization efforts, real estate investment is likely to remain in negative growth territory due to ongoing constraints [9][21] Industry Trends - The focus on new growth drivers, including artificial intelligence, service industries, new energy, and marine economy, highlights the importance of innovation and industrial upgrading for economic development [10][22] - The commitment to addressing involution and enhancing service quality indicates a strategic shift towards sustainable economic practices, although consumer recovery remains uncertain [10][22]