Oracle Stock Down 14%. Why Higher Risk Makes $ORCL A Sell

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock has experienced significant volatility, losing 14% since its latest quarterly earnings report and 44% since its peak on September 10, raising questions about its future growth potential and investment risks [3][4]. Financial Performance - Oracle's fiscal 2026 second quarter revenue reached $16.06 billion, a 14% increase but $150 million below analyst expectations; cloud revenue was $7.98 billion, up 34%, and cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, a 68% increase [12]. - The company's remaining performance obligations stood at $523 billion, a 438% increase, while free cash flow was negative $10 billion, nearly double the consensus [12]. - Capital expenditures are forecasted to be $50 billion, a 136% increase from previous estimates [12]. Debt and Financial Risks - Oracle's total debt has risen to over $93 billion, a 33% increase since 2020, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.78 times and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio exceeding 4x [13][14]. - Credit rating agencies have expressed concerns about Oracle's high debt levels, with its debt now two notches above speculative grade [15]. - The company faces significant customer concentration risk, particularly with clients like OpenAI and xAI, which are expected to incur substantial cash burns in the coming years [17][18]. Market Position and Valuation - Oracle's stock trades at a 56% premium compared to cloud peers, indicating high expectations for future growth that have yet to materialize [19]. - Analysts are skeptical about Oracle's ability to finance its ambitious AI build-out, questioning how the company will convert its backlog into actual revenue [20]. Growth Projections - Oracle's executive vice chair projected an eight-fold growth in revenue over the next four years, with expectations for cloud infrastructure revenue to reach $144 billion by fiscal year 2030 [21].