万泰争锋默沙东：HPV疫苗“最甜”的市场已经没了

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Wantai Biological's nine-valent HPV vaccine in Shanghai marks the beginning of competition with Merck, which has dominated the market for seven years, raising concerns about the clarity of commercial returns for vaccine companies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wantai's nine-valent HPV vaccine is priced at 499 yuan, requiring only 2 doses for women aged 9-17 and 3 doses for those aged 18-45, making it more affordable compared to Merck's vaccine [3][5]. - Merck's vaccine has seen a significant drop in monthly administration numbers in Shanghai, from 2000 to around 200, indicating a potential saturation in the market [4][6]. - The introduction of Wantai's vaccine is expected to increase vaccination rates among women, particularly those who previously found Merck's vaccine too expensive [5][6]. Group 2: Clinical and Production Insights - Wantai employs a lower-cost production method using E. coli, which allows for more stable output compared to Merck's vaccine [5]. - Wantai's vaccine has undergone five clinical trials involving approximately 11,000 Chinese women, with mostly mild adverse events reported [5]. - Merck's vaccine has a longer history of real-world data, but the introduction of Wantai's vaccine may lead to a decrease in prices for both products [5][8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The HPV vaccine market in China is facing concerns of oversupply, with Merck's nine-valent vaccine experiencing a 38% year-on-year decline in batch approvals [8]. - Merck's distributor, Zhifei Biological, is under pressure to clear inventory, which may lead to price reductions [8]. - Other companies, such as Watson Bio and Ruike Bio, are also developing HPV vaccines, but their market entry timelines are uncertain, with Ruike's vaccine expected to be approved by late 2026 or early 2027 [9][10].