宋雪涛：2026中国经济展望，走出价格低谷

Economic Transformation - The economic transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan is characterized by a shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new models) becoming the new engine of growth [2][3][4] - The GDP growth rate in Guangdong has been around 4%, significantly lower than the 5.5% growth rates in Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, indicating regional disparities in economic transformation [2][3] - The contribution of real estate development to GDP is projected to decline from 10.2% in 2020 to approximately 5.1% by 2025, reflecting a diminishing impact of the real estate sector on the economy [2][3][4] Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - The shift towards low-leverage industries indicates a transition in economic drivers, with the financial sector moving away from high-leverage real estate industries [3][4] New Economic Sectors - The "three new economies" are expected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, with high-tech manufacturing growth rates significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [4][6] - Investment in information transmission, software, and IT services is growing at a rate much higher than the overall fixed asset investment growth [4][6] Export Dynamics - The export share of China is expected to continue rising, with the automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, playing a crucial role in this growth [9][10] - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remains stable at 14.2%, with a combined share with Hong Kong rising to 17% [9][10] - China is projected to become the world's largest automobile exporter, surpassing Germany and Japan, with exports expected to reach 586 million vehicles by 2024 [9][10] Regional Price Disparities - Different regions are experiencing varying pressures on price levels, with provinces reliant on traditional industries facing greater deflationary pressures compared to more dynamic regions like Beijing and Shanghai [10][11] - The GDP deflator index in regions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is significantly lower than the national average, indicating economic challenges in these areas [10][11] Future Economic Outlook - The economic growth trajectory for 2026 is expected to follow a "V" shape, with initial low growth followed by a recovery, driven by resilient export growth and adjustments in the real estate sector [13][14] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5%, aligning with the long-term goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 [13][14]