Where Will Rivian Automotive Stock Be in 1 Year?

Core Insights - Rivian, once a leading electric vehicle (EV) IPO in 2021, has seen its stock price decline significantly from a peak market capitalization of $153.3 billion to approximately $21.5 billion today, reflecting a drastic reduction in valuation from 92 times its 2022 revenue to just three times its expected 2026 revenue [2][6] Production and Deliveries - Rivian produces three types of EVs: the R1T pickup truck, the R1S SUV, and custom electric delivery vans (EDVs) for Amazon and other companies [4] - In 2022, Rivian produced only 24,337 vehicles due to supply chain issues and competition, falling short of its initial goal of 50,000 vehicles [6] - In 2023, production increased to 57,232 vehicles, but the company faced another slowdown in 2024 and 2025, with expected production of 49,476 and 31,310 vehicles respectively [7] Financial Performance - Rivian's revenue grew from $1.66 billion in 2022 to $4.43 billion in 2023, with projections of $4.97 billion in 2024 and $4.10 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [7] - The company is expected to narrow its net loss from $6.75 billion in 2024 to $3.82 billion in 2025, driven by increased sales and regulatory credits [8] Future Projections - Analysts predict Rivian's revenue will rise to $6.87 billion in 2026, with a net loss of $3.66 billion, contingent on the successful launch of the R2 SUV [9] - By 2027, revenue could surge to $11.37 billion, assuming successful scaling of R2 production and increased EDV deliveries [9] Stock Outlook - Rivian has approximately $7.7 billion in liquidity, which it believes is sufficient to support the R2 production ramp-up [10] - If the R2 launch is successful and meets revenue targets, Rivian's stock could potentially rise by over 160% in the next 12 months [10]