Guggenheim CIO expects two rate cuts in 2026

Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to experience trend growth around 2% real GDP in 2026, with a benign first half driven by fiscal policy and tax breaks for corporations and individuals [2][4] - Monetary policy is perceived as dovish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, which may help both fixed income and equity markets [3][5] Market Performance - The best-performing sectors in the current year have been communication services and information technology, largely driven by AI advancements [6][7] - The technology sector is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, supported by a broader acceptance of artificial intelligence and related technologies, contributing approximately 1% to GDP [8][9] Investment Considerations - Concerns exist regarding potential overbuilding in the tech sector, particularly in digital infrastructure, which may pose risks in debt financing [10][12] - The current fiscal environment includes significant borrowing, with expectations of more Treasury issuance, particularly on the shorter end of the yield curve, leading to a steeper yield curve in the future [14][15]