Can AngloGold Ashanti Meet Its Upbeat 2025 Gold Production Guidance?

Core Insights - AngloGold Ashanti (AU) has shown strong performance in 2025, with a 20% year-over-year increase in gold production, reaching 2.292 million ounces in the first nine months, driven by the acquisition of the Sukari mine and solid performances from key assets [1][3] Production Growth - The company has reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance of 2.900-3.225 million ounces, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9-21% [2] - The Sukari mine is expected to contribute significantly, with a potential annual output of 500,000 ounces, having added 129,000 ounces and 135,000 ounces in the second and third quarters of 2025, respectively [3] - Obuasi mine's production increased by 31% year-over-year in Q2 and 30% in Q3, driven by grade improvement and steady ramp-up [4] - Cerro Vanguardia and Geita also reported increased production, with Geita's output up by 6% in Q3 [5] Peer Comparison - Newmont Corporation produced 1.42 million ounces in Q3 2025, down 15% year-over-year, maintaining a production expectation of 5.9 million ounces for 2025 [6] - Agnico Eagle Mines expects gold production between 3.3 million and 3.5 million ounces for 2025, with a slight increase in Q3 production compared to the previous year [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - AngloGold Ashanti's stock has appreciated by 274.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry, which saw a 139.7% increase [8] - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.79X, slightly below the industry average of 13.11X [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales is $9.67 billion, reflecting a 66.9% year-over-year increase, with earnings expected at $5.51 per share, a 149.3% rise [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 sales suggests a 13.3% year-over-year dip, while earnings are expected to grow by 16.8% [15] - EPS estimates for 2025 have increased by 3.8% over the past 60 days, while 2026 estimates have risen by 29.6% [15]