PayPal's Core Checkout Loses Steam—The Market Notices

Core Insights - PayPal Holdings, Inc. is experiencing ongoing softness in consumer spending, raising concerns about the pace of its turnaround [1][4] - Bank of America Securities analyst Mihir Bhatia downgraded PayPal from Buy to Neutral, lowering the price forecast from $93 to $68 due to slower progress in revitalizing branded checkout growth [1][2] Company Performance - The company has not seen the expected increase in button usage from product upgrades and a refreshed checkout experience [2] - Management views 2026 as an investment year, which limits near-term upside for the shares [2][3] - Branded checkout growth is expected to slow significantly in the fourth quarter, marking the weakest expansion in several years [3][5] Market Position - There are concerns that PayPal may be losing market share to rival digital wallets and alternatives, as branded checkout volumes have grown more slowly than broader e-commerce benchmarks [5][6] - The company has flagged continued softness in spending into November, contrasting with generally positive retail updates [4][6] Financial Outlook - Bhatia has lowered his earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027, reflecting slower growth and higher investment spending, with downside risk if 2027 remains investment-heavy [6] - PayPal's customer base skews toward middle- and lower-income households, which are more exposed to retail and discretionary spending [6]