宏观看客：长期美债收益率可能挺高 但还没到诱人水平

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets tend to interpret Federal Reserve policy decisions in a way that favors risk assets, reflecting a human tendency to believe in opportunities for significant profit [1][12] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions - The bond market is currently caught between the pressures of a steepening yield curve and the pursuit of yield, with the former expected to prevail [1] - The Federal Reserve's statements can be interpreted differently based on perspective, with recent economic forecasts appearing more hawkish compared to the previous year [12] - Powell's comments suggest that the Fed may wait for data to guide future policy actions as the policy rate approaches the upper end of the neutral rate range [12] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Powell's assertion that current inflation is primarily a result of one-time tariff impacts is questioned, as core commodity prices began rising well before the tariffs were implemented [3][13] - Service inflation continues to decline, but high rents in Manhattan present a contrasting reality, indicating potential complacency from the Fed regarding inflation [5][15] - The long-term effects of tariffs on prices may manifest gradually over the coming quarters or years, rather than being a one-time event [5][15] Group 3: Long-term Bonds and Investment Considerations - The current yield on long-term bonds at 4.78% is attractive, especially as it aligns with investment-grade corporate bond yields [15] - Long-term bonds are relatively cheap compared to other securities in the credit market, but they are not cheap when compared to cash and cash equivalents [17] - Historical data suggests that the current yield levels of long-term bonds may not be as appealing as they seem, indicating caution for investors considering long-term bonds as a value trade [21][22]