Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-12-11 20:17Core Viewpoint - The securities sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, supported by favorable policies and a stable capital market, despite underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The broker index has shown a cumulative increase of only 2.11% from the beginning of 2025 to December 11, 2025, significantly lagging behind the over 15% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [1]. - The third-quarter reports from listed brokers indicate a notable growth in revenue and net profit, highlighting a mismatch between performance and valuation [1]. Group 2: Policy and Market Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the stability of the capital market, with policies aimed at building a strong financial nation and improving market functions [2]. - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose stance in 2026, supporting liquidity and encouraging institutional investment [2]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Opportunities - The securities industry is projected to demonstrate resilience and adapt through value transitions, with active trading expected to support brokerage business and accelerated wealth management transformation [3]. - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as crucial for breaking through business bottlenecks and restructuring return on equity (ROE) [4]. Group 4: Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on leading securities firms aiming for international competitiveness, mid-sized firms with potential to enter the top tier, and companies benefiting from the recovery of wealth management and enhanced capital market flexibility [4].