ZACKS·2025-12-11 21:00Core Insights - NVIDIA has experienced a 36.8% increase in shares this year, while BigBear.ai has surged by 48.5%, raising questions about future performance comparisons between the two companies [1] Group 1: NVIDIA - NVIDIA forecasts global data center capital expenditures to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030, presenting significant sales opportunities for the company [2] - The company reported a 62% year-over-year revenue increase for fiscal Q3 2026, reaching $57 billion, with expectations of approximately $65 billion in fiscal Q4 2026 revenues [3][10] - NVIDIA has returned $37 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, indicating strong financial health and a competitive position in the AI hardware market [4] Group 2: BigBear.ai - BigBear.ai faced a 20% decline in third-quarter revenues to $33.1 million due to federal funding cuts, following an 18% decrease in second-quarter revenues [5] - The company has acquired Ask Sage for $250 million, which is expected to enhance revenue growth by integrating a secure AI platform for regulated sectors [6][7] - BigBear.ai maintains a strong cash position of $456.6 million as of September 30, 2025, which supports operational scaling and potential revenue growth from increased government spending [8] Group 3: Comparative Outlook - Both NVIDIA and BigBear.ai are positioned for growth, with NVIDIA benefiting from high demand for its chips and strong financials, while BigBear.ai relies on the Ask Sage acquisition and potential government spending increases [9] - BigBear.ai's profitability remains a concern, as its reported net income of $2.5 million in Q3 was due to non-cash adjustments, contrasting with NVIDIA's robust revenue gains [10] - Analysts project a short-term price target of $252.67 for NVIDIA, indicating a 36.6% increase, while BigBear.ai's target is $6.67, reflecting a slight decline [11][13]