Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Grind Dips Tests Prior Low

Larger Downtrend Context - The market is experiencing a larger downtrend, with a decisive push through today's low signaling a clear bearish signal [1] - The downtrend has accelerated recently, particularly in relation to the falling 50-day average, which has capped advances and produced lower highs [1] - Overall volatility has remained muted since the pullback began from the October swing high, where the 50-day line acted as firm resistance [1] Major Support Zone Below - Crude oil is currently positioned above a significant support band that extends down to the 2025 low of $55.23 [2] - The bullish reversal in October indicated genuine buyer conviction, suggesting potential for another demand surge if the support zone holds [2] - Even if lower prices occur in the short term, the major support area implies that downside containment is likely [2] Upside Reversal Requirements - A meaningful shift to bullish control requires a sustained breakout above the recent lower swing high at $60.56 to signal a short-term trend change [3] - More aggressive traders are monitoring for a reclaim of Wednesday's three-day high at $59.22 and the 20-day average near $59.11, where the 10-day and 20-day averages converge with a downtrend line [3] - This convergence creates a reinforced resistance pocket of heightened significance [3] Outlook - Crude oil's decline has brought it close to a critical 88.6% Fibonacci and multi-month low zone [4] - A daily close beneath $57.04–$57.21 could accelerate movement toward the broader $55–$57 support band, while respect for this area keeps the possibility of a sharp reversal alive [4] - Until a convincing push and hold above the $59.11–$59.22 confluence occurs, bears maintain full control [4]