股价又崩了，市值蒸发6690亿元！甲骨文成“煤矿中的金丝雀”

Core Insights - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) surged 438% year-over-year to $523 billion, driven by orders from major players like OpenAI and Nvidia [1][6] - The company reported a free cash flow deficit of $13.2 billion, raising concerns about its financial health [1][6] - Morgan Stanley analysts predict Oracle's adjusted debt could exceed $300 billion by 2028 [1][7] Financial Performance - For Q2 of fiscal year 2026, Oracle's total revenue was $16.06 billion, falling short of expectations [6] - Cloud business revenue reached $8 billion, a 34% year-over-year increase, but also below analyst forecasts [6] - AI-driven cloud infrastructure revenue grew 68% year-over-year to $4.1 billion [6] Debt and Credit Risk - Oracle's total outstanding debt has surpassed $100 billion, making it the largest debt holder among investment-grade tech companies [7] - The five-year credit default swap (CDS) for Oracle has risen to its highest level since 2009, indicating increased credit risk [4][13] - CDS trading volume surged to approximately $9.2 billion over ten weeks, compared to $410 million in the same period last year [4][13] Market Reaction - Oracle's stock price fell nearly 15% to $189.7, resulting in a market capitalization loss of about $95 billion [1][3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 1.93%, with major companies like Nvidia and AMD experiencing declines of over 3% [1][3] Strategic Partnerships and Risks - Oracle's partnership with OpenAI involves a five-year agreement for $300 billion in computing resources, raising concerns about OpenAI's ability to meet its financial commitments [8][12] - The capital expenditure for Oracle is projected to reach $50 billion for fiscal year 2026, increasing by $15 billion from previous estimates [6][8] - Analysts warn that Oracle's heavy reliance on debt for data center expansion poses significant risks, especially if customer commitments falter [8][12]