内部严重分歧，外有白宫施压，美联储降息暴露“内忧外患”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a third interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, amidst persistent inflation, slowing employment, and a complex macroeconomic environment, reflecting significant internal divisions and uncertainty in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Divisions and Decision-Making - The Federal Open Market Committee's vote on the rate cut was 9 in favor and 3 against, marking the highest number of dissenting votes in six years, breaking the tradition of consensus within the Fed [2][6]. - There are fundamental disagreements among officials regarding the economic outlook, with some viewing current inflation as a temporary shock driven by tariffs, while others are concerned that easing could reignite inflation risks [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The labor market's weakness may be more severe than reported, with potential job losses rather than gains, as indicated by Fed Chair Powell [4]. - Inflation remains a concern, with overall and core prices rising by 2.8% year-on-year as of September, despite being lower than previous peaks [4]. - The Fed's new forecasts suggest a hesitant approach to further rate cuts in the coming year, with only one cut anticipated, which may exacerbate tensions between the Fed and the White House [5]. Group 3: Impact on Consumers and Employment - The rate cut aims to lower credit costs to stimulate business expansion and consumer spending, but the impact on household budgets may be minimal due to persistently high overall interest rates [7]. - The average credit card interest rate has only decreased by about one percentage point since mid-September, and auto loan rates have dropped by approximately 0.5 percentage points, while new car prices have surpassed $50,000 [7]. - The Fed's ability to improve the labor market through rate cuts is limited, as current employment slowdowns are influenced by structural issues that monetary policy cannot address [8].