Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-11 23:01Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has been declining significantly, with a cumulative drop of approximately 40% since its peak in August 2023, resulting in a market value loss of over 200 billion HKD (approximately 180 billion RMB) [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 8, 2023, Pop Mart's stock fell over 8%, followed by a decline of more than 5% on December 9 [1] - The stock price surged nearly 15 times over a 17-month period from March 2024 to August 2025, marking a remarkable performance in the Hong Kong consumer stock market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Pop Mart reported a net profit of 920 million RMB, with an expected total net profit of 3.13 billion RMB for the entire year [1] - By the first half of 2025, the company earned 4.57 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Product and IP Dynamics - The popularity of Pop Mart's leading IP, LABUBU, significantly contributed to its stock price increase, with LABUBU becoming a global sensation in 2025 [1] - The production capacity for LABUBU has increased dramatically, with a monthly output rising from 10 million units to an average of 50 million units by the end of the year [2] - However, the market premium for LABUBU and other popular IPs has started to decline, with the premium for hidden versions of LABUBU shrinking by over 50% since August 2023 [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a growing consumer fatigue regarding certain IPs, leading to a decrease in prices in the secondary market [2] - The management of Pop Mart has expressed a desire to focus on selling quality products rather than financial instruments, indicating a shift in strategy [4] - Industry analysts suggest that while the rapid rise in stock price and product popularity has created a bubble, the company must strengthen its internal capabilities and find new growth points to ensure long-term success [4]