This bond-market ‘mystery’ could be a sign of trouble ahead, Wall Street economist says. Here’s why all investors should pay attention.

Core Viewpoint - Rising long-end yields in the Treasury market are defying historical trends and could indicate potential issues for investors, as highlighted by Apollo economist Torsten Slok [1][3][9] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Since the Federal Reserve began cutting its policy interest-rate target in September 2024, long-dated Treasury yields have remained stubbornly high [1][3] - Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasury securities are currently lower than at the start of 2025, suggesting a potential for price appreciation in the bond market for the first time since 2020 [4] - The yield curve is steepening, with 30-year yields rising faster than 10-year yields, which is concerning as it indicates investors are demanding a greater premium for long-dated U.S. debt [8] Group 2: Historical Relationships - Long-end yields have broken away from their historical relationship with short-end rates, which typically move in tandem [5][6] - A longstanding correlation between long-end yields and crude oil prices is also deteriorating, indicating broader market shifts [7] Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors across all asset classes are urged to consider the implications of the steepening yield curve and the unusual behavior of long-end yields [9]