中金2026年造纸行业展望：供给收尾 原料为王

Group 1 - The overall demand for paper is expected to continue a moderate recovery in 2026, with supply entering a winding down phase, but new capacity coming online in 2025 will keep supply-demand relatively loose [1][2] - The price of pulp is becoming a key driver for inventory adjustments in the paper industry, with the price cycle becoming shorter due to intense competition in the pulp and paper supply chain [1][2] - The next large-scale pulp project is not expected to come online until 2027, with no high-certainty projects in the interim, leading to a forecast of pulp prices recovering year-on-year in 2026, but with self-produced pulp capacity limiting the upper range of price recovery [1][2] Group 2 - The consumption demand for various types of paper is in a phase of moderate recovery, with different supply changes across paper categories; the integrated pulp and paper leaders are expected to continue earning excess profits [2] - The production capacity of corrugated box paper has nearly reached its peak, which is expected to lead to a recovery in capacity utilization and a year-on-year increase in paper prices [2] - The scarcity of quality forest and pulp assets is increasing, with tightening upstream resources due to limited high-quality forest resources and global economic growth, making companies with quality forest and pulp assets more attractive [2]