Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-12 00:29Group 1 - The necessity and feasibility of short-term interest rate cuts may increase due to the current internal and external environment, with weak real estate sales dragging down credit and inflation recovery [1][9] - Real estate policies have not led to significant improvements in housing transactions, with continued low consumer purchasing willingness and pressure from existing housing stock, indicating a need for interest rate cuts to stimulate sales [2][9] - Local government debt issuance rates have risen, leading to increased fiscal pressure, and the effectiveness of debt reduction measures may need to be strengthened, suggesting a potential need for short-term interest rate cuts [3][9] Group 2 - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a decline in the US dollar index and improved cross-border capital flows, providing a temporary window for interest rate cuts by the central bank [4][10] - Commercial banks are adjusting their liability structures to alleviate pressure on net interest margins, which have been under strain due to weak social demand and high competition for deposits [5][11] - The continuation of a loose monetary policy environment may improve the demand for long-term bonds, with expectations of a potential recovery in bond market performance by early 2026 [6][12]