张瑜：摆脱“超常规”——六句话学习中央经济工作会议

Group 1 - The external environment is assessed positively, with exports growing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience against external shocks [1][13] - The upcoming year is expected to maintain high export growth due to dual resilience in market share and external demand [1][13] Group 2 - The policy approach is shifting from extraordinary measures to more conventional methods, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new incremental policies [2][14] - The overall economic cycle has improved, with indicators like M1 and corporate deposits showing recovery, suggesting a gradual move away from extraordinary policy dependence [2][14] Group 3 - Risk management pressure has decreased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas like reform and opening up [3][15] Group 4 - Fiscal support is expected to decrease, with budget growth rates for 2023-2025 set at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, respectively, aligning closely with economic targets [4][5][16] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in fiscal deficit rates [5][17] Group 5 - The economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but weak demand, leading to challenges in domestic consumption and employment [6][18] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to approximately 4.5% in 2026, with CPI expected at around 0.7% and PPI at -1.4% [6][18] Group 6 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to be the most stable and promising area, benefiting from external demand resilience and domestic supply constraints [7][19]