德国经济增长前景承压 结构性问题与美方关税成主要拖累

Core Viewpoint - Several authoritative economic research institutions in Germany have downgraded the country's economic growth forecasts for the coming years, attributing this to structural issues within the economy and the impact of U.S. tariffs [1][2] Economic Growth Forecasts - The Ifo Institute has revised its growth predictions for Germany to 0.8% and 1.1% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, both down by 0.5 percentage points from previous estimates. The forecast for 2025 has also been lowered to just 0.1% [1] - The Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research have made similar assessments regarding the economic outlook [1] Structural Issues - Germany's slow modernization process, cumbersome administrative procedures, aging infrastructure, and lag in key technologies such as artificial intelligence are identified as factors limiting competitiveness [1] - Ifo Institute expert Timo Wollmershäuser noted that while government economic stimulus measures have provided short-term relief, they are insufficient for long-term capacity expansion in the economy [1] - The decline in labor potential, corporate investment, and productivity growth is contributing to the loss of economic momentum [1] Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The Ifo Institute estimates that U.S. tariff policies will reduce Germany's economic growth by 0.3 percentage points in 2025 and by 0.6 percentage points in 2026 [2] - Despite a reduction in trade disputes between the U.S. and the EU, uncertainty stemming from tariffs remains high [2] Recommendations for Improvement - Multiple research institutions recommend that Germany should pursue comprehensive digitalization, simplify administrative processes, improve the investment environment, and enhance innovation capabilities to avoid further declines in competitiveness [2]