RGA Investment Advisors Q3 2025 Investment Commentary

Market Concentration and Performance - The S&P 500 is experiencing historic concentration, with the top 10 companies accounting for over 40% of the index's total weight, leading to a divergence between equal-weighted and capitalization-weighted indices [4][5] - The performance divide indicates that the median stock's performance is not accurately reflected by the cap-weighted index, highlighting the challenges for active investment strategies that typically focus on smaller and mid-cap stocks [5][6] Market Dynamics - High retail participation and speculation are distorting valuation logic, with some stocks trading at levels disconnected from fundamentals, exemplified by Palantir's high multiples [6] - The dominance of AI is influencing market dynamics, with many winning stocks connected to AI, even among smaller companies in the Russell 2000 index, which often have high EV/S ratios despite lacking revenue [6][8] Investment Opportunities - The healthcare sector is identified as mispriced, with a widening valuation gap favoring investors [8] - Capital One's acquisition of Discover is seen as transformative, positioning it to generate substantial value and redefine its competitive standing in the payments landscape [19][29] - The acquisition allows Capital One to leverage a key exemption related to the Durbin Amendment, potentially increasing debit interchange rates and delivering over $1 billion in network synergies by 2027 [21][29] Capital One's Strategic Positioning - The merger with Discover enhances Capital One's scale, making it the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. and improving its loan book mix by reducing consumer subprime risk [26][30] - Capital One's technological infrastructure and operational expertise are crucial for integrating Discover's systems, with expected annual expense savings of approximately $1.5 billion [23][25] - The combined entity is projected to achieve an EPS of $25 by 2027, with a ROTCE exceeding 20%, justifying a higher market multiple than its current valuation [31]