氧化铝探底 电解铝冲高 产业链收益格局“冰火两重天”

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a stark divergence in price trends between alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with alumina prices plummeting while electrolytic aluminum prices are rising, creating a "ice-fire" scenario in the industry [1][5]. Price Trends - As of December 10, 2023, alumina futures fell below 2500 yuan/ton, down from a peak of 5500 yuan/ton a year ago, marking a significant decline [1][2]. - The price of electrolytic aluminum has increased, reaching a new high of 22,100 yuan/ton on December 5, 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.60% [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of alumina is expected to remain ample, with a projected production of 74.46 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while electrolytic aluminum production is only expected to grow by 2% [5][6]. - The disparity in supply growth rates between alumina and electrolytic aluminum is a key factor driving the price divergence [6][9]. Profitability Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum producers are currently enjoying significant profits, with theoretical pre-tax profits around 5,569 yuan/ton, while alumina producers are facing losses, with profits around -52 yuan/ton [7][9]. - The cost structure for producing electrolytic aluminum is heavily influenced by alumina prices, which have dropped significantly, thereby enhancing profit margins for electrolytic aluminum producers [2][3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the price divergence between alumina and electrolytic aluminum will continue, with alumina prices likely to remain under pressure due to oversupply [9][10]. - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain strong, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, which may support higher prices in the future [7][10].