光大期货：12月12日金融日报

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile decline, with the TMT and real estate sectors showing weak performance. The Wind All A index fell by 1.1%, with a trading volume of 1.89 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.3%, the CSI 500 index by 1.02%, the CSI 300 index by 0.86%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.39% [2][5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting was held to outline economic work for 2026, with a focus on boosting domestic demand. The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is also anticipated [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's meeting this week and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may impact market liquidity and volatility in the short term [2][5] Investment Sentiment - The new productive forces led by AI remain the core driver for index increases, although the market is currently cautious. Despite strong performance certainty in tech sectors, the profitability model within the industry chain has not yet formed a closed loop, leading to a cautious capital market attitude due to high valuations [2][5] - Traditional economic sectors, particularly consumption and cyclical themes, are still in a phase of volatile recovery. While there are some rebound logic, a fundamental bull market is unlikely in the short term [2][5] - Market risk appetite remains low, with indices expected to fluctuate primarily [2][5] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.45%, the 10-year by 0.09%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.01% [8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 118.6 billion yuan at a rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation. A total of 180.8 billion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [8] - The overall funding environment remains loose, but expectations for interest rate cuts are low, leading to a slight upward trend in bond yields and a steepening yield curve [8] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold saw a rise, while spot silver reached $64 per ounce, marking a historical high. Platinum and palladium also experienced upward movement, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 67.8 and the platinum-palladium spread widening to approximately $200 per ounce [9] - Reports indicate that Wall Street perceives the Federal Reserve's December meeting as hawkish, despite internal divisions and an emphasis on data dependency, which has not altered its accommodative stance [9] - The increase in initial jobless claims by 44,000, the largest rise since 2020, alongside a significant drop in continuing claims to an 8-month low, has contributed to the rapid rebound in gold prices [9]