光大期货：12月12日能源化工日报

Oil Market - Oil prices continued to decline, with WTI January contract closing at $57.60 per barrel, down $0.86 (1.47%) [3][15] - OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, with a total output of 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels from the previous month [3][15] - IEA revised down its forecast for global oil supply surplus for next year, now expecting a surplus of 3.84 million barrels per day, lower than the previous estimate of 4.09 million barrels per day [3][15] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.57% to 2382 yuan per ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 0.67% to 2986 yuan per ton [4][16] - The Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market remains under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [4][16] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 0.92% to 2960 yuan per ton, with social inventory rate at 23.86%, down 0.56% week-on-week [5][17] - Winter storage prices for asphalt are expected to drop to near five-year lows, predicted to be between 2800-2900 yuan per ton [5][17] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan per ton to 15185 yuan per ton, while the NR main contract remained unchanged [6][17] - China's automotive production and sales reached historical highs in November, with production exceeding 3.53 million vehicles [6][17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4664 yuan per ton, up 1.04%, while EG2601 closed at 3599 yuan per ton, down 2.25% [8][18] - PX futures closed at 6816 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 1.04% [8][18] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2105 yuan per ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $241 to $245 per ton [9][19] - The market is expected to maintain a bottom range due to slow unloading rates and limited demand for significant price increases [9][19] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6150 to 6400 yuan per ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [10][20] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high inventory pressure on downstream [10][20] PVC - PVC prices in East China saw slight adjustments, with prices for different grades ranging from 4300 to 4600 yuan per ton [11][21] - Domestic demand is expected to slow down as construction activities in the real estate sector decrease [11][21] Urea - Urea futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1638 yuan per ton, down 0.55% [12][23] - Supply levels have decreased recently, with daily production at 195,800 tons, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [12][23] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed slight declines, with the main contract closing at 1103 yuan per ton [13][24] - Supply levels have increased, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [13][24] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 956 yuan per ton, down 1.44% [14][24] - The market is experiencing stable demand but lacks strong driving factors, leading to low confidence in the industry [14][24]