华尔街点评“400亿购债”：美联储回归美债“头号买家”缓解融资压力，互换利差等交易迎来顺风

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds monthly is expected to lower borrowing costs and revise Wall Street's debt issuance forecasts for 2026, with potential purchases reaching $525 billion [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin purchasing Treasury bonds to alleviate short-term interest rate pressures by rebuilding financial system reserves [1]. - Starting in December, the Fed will also reinvest the proceeds from unwinding agency debt, which is expected to relieve accumulated pressure from months of asset reduction [2]. - The Fed's aggressive actions indicate a low tolerance for financing pressures, with expectations to become the primary buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds in the coming months [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Barclays estimates that the Fed may purchase nearly $525 billion in Treasury bonds by 2026, significantly higher than previous forecasts of $345 billion, while net issuance to private investors is expected to drop to $220 billion from $400 billion [5]. - JPMorgan anticipates the Fed will maintain a $40 billion monthly purchase rate until mid-April, then slow to $20 billion, with total purchases reaching approximately $490 billion by 2026 [7]. - RBC Capital Markets suggests that the Fed's actions are more about absorbing Treasury issuance rather than increasing reserves, indicating a coordinated effort with the Treasury to manage issuance volatility [8]. Group 3: Implications for Market Dynamics - The Fed's bond purchases are expected to support swap spreads and the SOFR-federal funds rate basis trades, although they may not completely eliminate market volatility, especially around year-end [2][10]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the Fed's cautious approach to transitioning to ample money supply is beneficial for stabilizing the repo market and supporting favorable conditions for SOFR and front-end swap spreads [6]. - TD Securities predicts that the Fed will purchase $425 billion in Treasury bonds through RMP and MBS reinvestments in FY2026, which will account for a significant portion of net supply [9].