中信证券：“绿色溢价”逐步收窄 绿色燃料方兴未艾

Core Viewpoint - Green liquid fuels are becoming a key driver for decarbonization in shipping, aviation, and chemical industries, benefiting from increased carbon tax policies and ongoing cost reductions, with potential for nearly tenfold growth in the next five years and a long-term market space reaching trillions [1] Policy Support and Market Demand - The demand for green liquid fuels, including green methanol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is transitioning from "potential" to "rigid" due to improved clean energy systems and decarbonization policies, with projected global demand by 2025 reaching approximately 300 million tons for green methanol, 250 million tons for green ammonia, and 250 million tons for SAF, and expected to grow significantly by 2030 [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current production processes for green methanol, green ammonia, and SAF are mature, but actual project implementation is limited, with effective capacities projected to be only 50 million tons for green methanol, 130 million tons for green ammonia, and 440 million tons for SAF by 2025, while by 2030, effective capacities are expected to reach 2600 million tons for green methanol, 2400 million tons for green ammonia, and 1700 million tons for SAF [3] Cost Reduction and Pricing Trends - The production cost of green liquid fuels is currently 70%-120% higher than traditional methods, primarily due to the "green premium" from renewable electricity and equipment costs, with projections indicating that the cost of green methanol could decrease to between 2900-3700 RMB per ton by 2030, narrowing the cost gap with traditional fuels [4] Industry Chain Development - The green liquid fuel industry chain is evolving, with upstream suppliers of green electricity and biomass, integrated production operators, and downstream storage and distribution companies, where integrated firms are primarily wind power and state-owned electricity companies, enhancing their value and positioning in the emerging market [5]