【市场聚焦】锡：波动加剧

Group 1 - The short-term supply tightness supports tin prices, which are expected to show an upward trend but may face limitations due to weak consumption and previous bullish trading [2][15] - The recent escalation of armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has raised concerns about potential supply risks, leading to a significant increase in tin prices [5][18] - A peace agreement signed between the DRC and Rwanda aims to end a 30-year conflict, providing some relief to supply concerns, although armed conflicts in South Kivu province continue to escalate [5][18] Group 2 - The rapid increase in both domestic and international tin holdings has reached historical highs, with Shanghai tin holdings rising from 70,000 contracts to over 100,000 contracts, and LME net holdings increasing from 4,000 to over 5,000 contracts [8][21] - The correlation between tin and copper prices has reached its highest level in nearly a decade, driven by a narrative of structural supply shortages and resilient short-term demand, particularly due to AI consumption concepts [8][21] Group 3 - Tin ingot exports from Indonesia have significantly declined since October due to changes in government quota policies, which are expected to limit supply growth until early next year [11][24] - Demand for tin has weakened in the second half of the year, with consumption growth dropping from 2% in the first half to nearly -7% by year-end, except for some support from the semiconductor sector [11][24] - The global refined tin supply-demand balance is projected to shift from a slight shortage of 1,000 tons this year to a surplus of 2,000 tons next year, indicating a potential easing of supply tightness [11][24] Group 4 - The overall supply remains tight, influenced by the slow recovery of Myanmar mines and low Indonesian tin exports due to policy impacts, while demand shows relative weakness, particularly as higher tin prices reduce domestic purchasing willingness [12][25] - The macro-financial attributes of tin have strengthened over the past two years, with prices showing a fluctuating upward trend, driven by the development of AI technology, which is expected to create new demand [12][25] - Short-term price expectations indicate that tin prices will remain in a range of 290,000 to 360,000 CNY per ton for Shanghai tin and 36,000 to 45,000 USD per ton for LME tin, with potential limitations on upward movement due to weak consumption [12][25]