【市场聚焦】宏观：会议对商品价格的指引

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference highlighted five "musts" focusing on economic potential, policy support, and the integration of investment in goods and people, emphasizing the importance of internal demand and risk prevention in real estate [2][3][6]. Group 1: Five "Musts" - The five "musts" include fully tapping economic potential, balancing policy support with reform innovation, ensuring effective management alongside flexibility, integrating investment in goods and people, and strengthening internal capabilities to face external challenges [3][11]. - The first "must" emphasizes expanding internal demand and finding technological breakthroughs for new growth [3][11]. Group 2: Cross-Cycle Adjustment - The conference stressed the importance of cross-cycle adjustments, advocating for a combination of existing and new policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [4][12]. - It was noted that the integration of existing and new policies is crucial for effective economic management [4][12]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A more proactive fiscal policy is to be continued, with a fiscal deficit target potentially remaining above 4.0% for 2024, indicating a shift towards expansionary fiscal measures [5][14]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with the possibility of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support liquidity [5][14]. Group 4: Key Tasks for the New Year - The primary tasks for the upcoming year include expanding internal demand, advancing high technology, and implementing reforms, with internal demand being crucial for countering external risks [6][15]. - The focus on real estate is primarily on risk prevention rather than aggressive stimulus measures, indicating a cautious approach to avoid systemic risks [6][15]. Group 5: Economic Goals and Inflation - The economic growth target for 2026 is projected to be around 5.0%, with a focus on supporting consumption, stabilizing investment, and expanding openness [7][16]. - The notion of "reasonable price recovery" does not necessarily imply significant price increases for domestic goods, as inflation metrics like CPI and core CPI have shown upward trends without a corresponding rise in commodity prices [8][17].